Wednesday, 4 September 2013

Peshawar mass transit

PROJECT BRIEF
1.0 BACKGROUND
Peshawar is the capital of the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and the administrative and economic hub of this area. The population of Peshawar city is approximately 2 million, and it is located at 34.0117°N, 71.5389°E with an area of 1,257 sq.km (485.3 sq miles). Peshawar is situated in a large valley between the eastern edge of the Iranian plateau and the Indus Valley, near the eastern end of the Khyber Pass, Renowned in Persian as "City on the Frontier", Peshawar's strategic location on the crossroads of Central Asia and South Asia has made it one of the most culturally vibrant and lively cities in the greater region. 1.01 Urbanization trends and increasing demand The urban population of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is increasing at a very fast pace, due to many push and pull factors. The Afghan influx in KPK, the law and order situation coupled with natural calamities like floods and earthquakes pushing people out from FATA, Malakand etc. The pull of safety and security, education and health facilities, better business and employment opportunities, all have their attraction, bringing more people to the cities and increasing the population.
Increasing population is not a thing to worry about, only if the transition is managed properly and the systems are strengthened and planned. But that is indeed not the case, as the cities are witnessing unregulated unplanned growth, with no master plans to guide the growth and channel the resources to lead to enhanced incomes and to manage urbanization. All of it has led to the collapse of services and development of slums. The Urban proportion of the population of Pakistan is projected to increase from 30% to 50% in next fifteen years. Hence the Urban areas will see major growth, for which we have to plan now. 1.02 Need for special focus on Transportation One of the major sectors that make a city function efficiently and effectively is the transport sector. Connectivity is the Key, as they say for spurring development and growth. But the transportation sector is an ignored domain as yet, and beset with many problems. Systems are not keeping pace with the demand. Increasing population results in increasing travel demands, which need to be managed through adequate planning and resource allocations. Prevailing transport systems are inadequate and with limited capacity, and hence need serious upgrade, making it imperative that we provide new solutions, which include Mass Transit.
Traffic problem is undoubtedly one of the biggest problems the Peshawarites face on daily basis. The existing road networks in Peshawar have become seriously inadequate to the needs. Traffic management is weak, we have less space for expansion and widening of roads, the drivers are undisciplined, hence making our roads congested and unsafe. Also the dust and smoke on our roads is not at all healthy. The number of cars and car usage has increased at a rate higher than the population, leading to congestion and traffic jams. The urban growth has been along roads (ribbon development), which has led to congestion. The public transport system is an ignored domain, with the Government Transport Service (GTS) privatized in the last decade. The transport system is in private hands, with substandard services, dehumanizing veneer, low safety and not at all sufficient to the needs and requirements. Buses, wagons and rickshaws travel in mix traffic and there are No bus priority lanes. Bus stops are also not properly designed.
In the present sustainable urban models, where we have rising fuel prices and constricted city space, public transport is accorded a high priority, because it is a sustainable mode of travel for high density areas. It is a more effective and efficient way of moving people in urban areas, especially when direct costs and externalities are all
considered. Public transport can make more efficient use of space and energy, and be more cost effective than private cars. It also provides mobility for a wider range of people, from all social strata and all age groups.
The current Provincial Government has realized the important role of Public transport system in improving the city environment, and raising its social and economic conditions. The provision of fast, reliable and cost effective public transport (Mass Transit) is the only way to deal with the traffic problems and give an impetus to the city economy. Improved transport system can spur economic growth and development, by providing easy movement of people which generates economic activity and hence direct and indirect employment, leading to reduction in poverty.
Khyber Pakhtunkhawa Government is therefore keen to investigate all options for Mass Transit systems, which should have the following, features:
a) A mass transit system (MTS) that facilitates and encourages high density commercial and residential development, and leads to containment of urban sprawl;
b) Minimize duplication / overlapping of public transport on formal & informal routes;
c) Maximize ridership and ensures integration with other transport modes, and is in line with land use, and caters to activity centers (Transport Oriented Development);
d) High level of service in terms of speed, safety, frequency and accessibility (geographical and financial), which reduces dependence on other forms of transport (buses, cars, rickshaws and motorcycles etc.);
e) Safe, secure, reliable, comfortable, and environmentally sustainable transport system; which meets the needs and aspirations of the Peshawar community;
2.0 OBJECTIVES
The main aim would be to prepare an international standard study that can reflect on the feasibility of implementing Mass Transit System (MTS) in Peshawar in an integrated way. This should also serve as a guide for the investors, and help them decide whether to take up this project or not. Specifically the study should carry out the following tasks, in line with the best international practices:
I. Review previous work and develop the concept for mass transit, most appropriate and best suited to the city of Peshawar transportation requirements;
II. Identify potential corridors that need and demand MTS;
III. Prepare travel demand forecasts and provide estimates of revenues under a range of fare structure;
IV. Propose the most suitable and economical horizontal and vertical alignment for MTS;
V. Propose the appropriate MTS, rolling stock and technology, which takes into account the need and affordability;
VI. Define the system performance requirements;
VII. Determine the economic viability of the project and the pre requisites and other inputs necessary to ensure viability;
VIII. Determine the financial structures and risks associated with the project;
IX. Identify externalities and other factors that may impact on the project - environmental, social and developmental;
X. Suggest regulatory regime for the implementation and operation of MTS;
XI. The management structures required to operate and maintain such a system, with details of costs and technical inputs;
XII. Propose the appropriate financing requirements and possible sources available for implementation of the project;
XIII. Prepare an action plan comprising of the key steps to successful and timely financing and implementation of the project
3.0 SCOPE OF WORK
The consultant will be required to perform the services listed in the following sections.
3.01 Review of previous work
The consultant will review the best models of MTS operating in developed and developing countries. Moreover, they will evaluate and compare the technology being used. The consultant will review the applicability of the conclusions from previous works, in the context of Peshawar, which will involve reviewing affordability, travel patterns, previous route alignment and main interchanges, and integration requirements with road-based public and private transport.
3.02 Patronage and Revenue Forecast Studies
This will involve identifying the major corridors that demand mass transit service. To this end, a comprehensive analysis of travel patterns will be required, which should consider and take into account the following aspects:
I. Analysis of existing and future conceptual land use patterns and impact on travel demand forecast;
II. Review of existing traffic conditions in Peshawar along the major corridors, and the likely and projected changes in the future;
III. Review of existing bus route networks;
IV. Passenger surveys in order to establish travel demand;
V. Identification of major passenger flows between various hubs of activities (Origin destination etc);
VI. Development and calibration of a travel demand model using appropriate software;
VII. Forecast of future travel growth, which best reflects the likely changes in socio-economic factors;
VIII. Preparation of patronage forecast for alternative fare scenarios for the opening year ( say 2015), and for future years;
IX. Assessment of sensitivity of forecasts to key input assumptions;
X. Validation of the scale of the forecasts against existing comparable MRT in comparable cities around the world;
XI. Preparation of fare-box revenue estimates for all years
XII. Collection of available data and new surveys to generate mandatory inputs.
3.03 Technical and Operational Studies
These studies will focus upon assessing technical and operational feasibility and preliminary design; leading to financial cost analysis; and develop bid documents. The following activities will be included:
I. Collect available data on topographic and geo-technical features for the identified corridors;
II. Identification of best mode of transport, with option of mode mixing (Bus Rapid Transit, Rail, Mono rail etc)
III. Determine the required performance and characteristics of the system including; operational performance in terms of comfort, operating speed, system capacity, track structure/gauge, length of routes, number of stations, frequency of service (peak hours), rolling stock / buses requirements, traction system, signaling system, fare collection system, traffic management system, etc;
IV. Design preliminary route plan based on travel demand pattern/ passenger loads;
V. Develop preliminary technical drawings (Scale 1:5000) of horizontal and (Scale 1:200) vertical alignments;
VI. Develop the preliminary design of stations/stops, interchanges, depots, maintenance facilities and power generation plant;
VII. Prepare complete cost estimates of the project;
VIII. Develop phasing plan for step wise implementation, regarding phase wise development of different routes and different modes of transport; with integration plans for multi modal system, including Pedestrian corridors;
IX. Prepare operating cost estimates for operations, maintenance, administration and an estimate of asset replacement costs.
3.04 Economic, Financial and Environmental Feasibility Studies
The consultant will evaluate the economic, financial and environmental aspects of the mass transit project, and give its recommendations. The major trade-offs (e.g. between efficiency and environment) should be identified for consideration and decision by the client. The following activities will be undertaken:
I. Economic appraisal of the project, including the robustness of the performance parameters. The impact of the following sources of risk should be assessed:
a. Cost overruns
b. Implementation time overruns
c. Revenue shortfall
d. Economic risks demanding government financial support
II. Assessment of the social, environmental and development impacts
III. Summary of investment costs (construction, rolling stock, power supply, signaling telecommunication, control station/depot equipments and safety measures)
IV. Determine the project financial structure (given its fares and ancillary revenues, capital operating and asset replacement cost)
V. Determine the project IRR
VI. Computation of economic benefits (time savings, cost saving accruing out of zero green house gas emission) and estimation of economic benefits in terms of EIRR etc.
VII. Assessment of environmental impacts such as severance, reduction in pollution and other issues;
VIII. Establish the prospects for such a project being financially viable in the foreseeable future and the associated risks including consideration of experience elsewhere
3.05 Implementation Implications
The consultant will be required to clearly workout the proposals for the implementation of MTS in a phased programmed. In this regard the consultant will advise on the possible funding possibilities and resources for the financing of the project. The consultant will analyze the pros and cons of each funding mechanism and prepare bid documents for the most appropriate arrangement for financing of the project.
3.06 Regulatory Regime for Mass Transit System
An autonomous regulatory institution provides the desired comfort to the private sector investors. Its credibility is dependent on the transparency as well as defined and clearly stated procedures. Fairness and impartiality have to be at the centre place of all functions of the regulatory institution. The consultant will analyze the present institutional arrangements and legal framework and identify institutional/regulatory options for implementation and operation of MTS. While analyzing strengths and weaknesses of each option the consultant will propose the best regulatory option for sustainable operation of MTS under the administrative control of Transport Department.
3.07 Roadmap for the Next 20 Years
In the light of the results of the study, the consultant will provide a complete roadmap of the proposed actions to be taken by the regulatory regime over the next 20 years to implement the MTS. This will be developed into an Action Plan, defining the key institutional; project preparatory, procurement, funding etc steps that are required. The consultant will also develop an action plan for stepwise improvement of bus feeder services essential for successful operation and planning to safeguard the right of ways of different corridors of MTS.
4.0 DURATION OF STUDY
The study should substantially be completed in a maximum period of six (6) months from the date of award of contract
5.0 SELECTION OF CONSULTANTS
The selection of consultant would be done as per guidelines for the selection of consultants issued by Planning and Development Department, Government of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
6.0 QUALIFICATION OF CONSULTANTS
The consultant should be a reputable and experienced organisation, with a demonstrated experience of conducting similar studies in other cities. In the proposal the consultant shall provide brief descriptions of the similar projects carried out in the last five years, indicating those aspects of the projects that are relevant to the work being proposed.
It shall also indicate that the team, which should comprise of highly qualified experts having at least ten years of professional experience in the sector.
6.01 CONSULTANTS TEAM;
The areas of expertise required are, but not limited to the following;
 public transport planning and analysis,
 transport economics and financial analysis,
 Mass Transit alignment engineering,
 E&M systems engineering and operation and procurement.
 The team must include a senior public transport planner with extensive experience of dealing with transport issues in Peshawar.
 Finance and forecasting
The experts must possess a degree in the relevant specialization and ten years post qualification experience in the relevant discipline. The consultant firm shall give undertaking to engage the same team, which has been mentioned in the bid. Any change in the team has to be limited to 25% of the proposed team, and such a change will need prior approval from the client.
7.0 DELIVERABLES
The consultant will be required to submit final and complete text of report, subject to approval of the client, encompassing results of the study as specified in the 'Scope of Work'. A soft copy of the final report shall also be provided on Compact Disks (CDs), using mutually agreed versions of MS Office or any other Software. The report shall be, at a minimum, similar in quality and standard to those produced by international organizations/Government of Pakistan.
The client will sponsor dissemination workshop of the project stakeholders, including policy makers, representatives of public and private sector transport business. The consultants will arrange the workshop and present the results therein.
Schedule of deliverables will be as follows.
a) Inception Report: Within 30days of start of the study, the consultant will submit inception report containing detailed methodology, work plan and confirmation of availability of professionals proposed in the technical proposals for conducting the study.
b) First Draft: Within six months of the award of contract, the consultant will submit four copies of the draft report to the client. The client will return the draft with comments, if any, within 5 days of the submittal of the draft.
c) Dissemination Workshop: The consultant will arrange and present the results and recommendations of the study in a dissemination workshop of the stakeholders.
d) Final Report: The Consultant will compile the proceedings and recommendations of the workshop and discuss the same with the client with regard to the final draft report. Recommendations, if any, should be incorporated in the final report and thereafter ten (10) copies of the final report and its soft copy shall be submitted to the client.
8.0 STEERING COMMITTEE & WORKING TEAM
For the purpose of overseeing the implementation of this FS assignment, Urban Policy Unit will establish a Steering Committee (SC) and Working Team (WT) to collaborate with the FS consultant team. The composition of the SC may be as under:
 Additional Chief Secretary, Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
 Secretary P&D Department,
 Secretary Transport,
 Secretary LG&RD,
 Commissioner Peshawar,
 Administrator Municipal Corporation Peshawar.
 Director General, Peshawar Development Authority
 Deputy Inspector General Traffic Peshawar
 Cantonment Board Peshawar
 Representative (technical expert) of Pakistan Railway.
 Executive Director, Urban Policy Unit.
 Economic coordinator CM secretariat
 Public representatives of Peshawar District
 Any co-opted member
The steering committee may constitute a working team for day to day liaison and technical oversight.
The objectives of the Steering Committee and the Working Team are to:
I. provide guidance and oversight to all activities under the Feasibility Study;
II. Review and monitor the progress / performance of the activities periodically;
III. Support the FS consultants with the collection of relevant data and information;
IV. Suggest ways and means to optimize the project objectives for the benefit of the stakeholders and participating organizations; and
V. Liaise with other important actors dealing with other projects and to develop a coordinated project.
The FS Team Leader will be responsible for scheduling of meetings of the Project Steering Committee and Working Team..
UPU reserves the right to establish any other reporting mechanisms deemed necessary to ensure high quality and timely completion of the study.

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